The Complexity and Instability of Policy Conditionality and Transfer: IMF Interventions in the Political Economy of South America.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) interventions have evolved in the last sixty years based on the predominant orthodoxy in world political economy with a focus in recent decades on encouraging liberal market conditions to secure inward investment and capital flows. This has resulted in a dominant model of policy conditions and transfer, but with a debate about the contextual relevance. This paper uses an innovative approach to longitudinal research, called Dynamic Pattern Synthesis, to compare the economic performance of South American nations between 2000-2015. The results from using this method illustrates multifinality in the IMF outcome of encouraging foreign direct investment. A complex configuration of influences on this outcome are evidenced. Complexity theory is used to explain the results, with the continent defined as a complex system that does not respond to simple causal policy mechanisms, but rather displays different patterns of political and economic influence in the context of global market instability. Different foreign direct investment configurations result, and these illustrate that international monetary and policy interventions need to be contextual and cannot make simplistic and universal assumptions about policy problems and their mechanistic solutions.

Monetary Convergence Across the Economic Community of West African States: Lessons for the Envisioned West African Monetary Union

Since its inauguration, the Economic Community of West African States has stressed its desire to advance regional integration through the establishment of a common single currency (the Eco). This policy has been considered advantageous given the economic benefits derived from the existence of one of the oldest sub-regional monetary unions across French-speaking West African Economies. For this reason, the West African Monetary Zone was created as a suggested second monetary zone consisting of English-speaking countries in the region in anticipation that in the long run, the two would converge. While empirical studies into the feasibility of achieving monetary integration in West Africa have provided some understanding of causal notions and possible effects, very few studies embrace complexity theory or attempt to use complexity-related conceptual notions in the identification and interpretation of patterns produced in longitudinal applications. Using both empirical and theoretical methods, this paper provides a unique longitudinal application of Dynamic Patterns Synthesis as an exploratory tool for observing the potential complexities that the proposed single currency arrangement across West Africa is likely to pose. The findings highlight multiple conjunctural causation in observing convergence and unpredictability across the Monetary Zone. These observations suggest more time is needed to achieve an established single currency.

A Systematic Literature Review of the Impact of Complexity Theory on Applied Economics

A systematic literature review is used to explore the relationship between complexity theory and economics. Broad search terms identify an unmanageable large number of hits. A more focused search strategy follows the PRISMA protocol and screens for Economics branded publications, and with key words for different applications of economics occurring in the abstract. This results in a distinct group of 247 publications. One hundred and twenty-two publications are excluded due to inclusion criteria or a lack of relevance. The remaining 113 are analysed for (1) use of complexity theory concepts, (2) types of methodology and methods, and (3) the applications for macro, meso, and micro issues. The publication with the greatest frequency of resulting articles is Complexity, closely followed by Ecological Economics. The highest annual citation ratio for a single article was 33.88. Complexity theory concepts included: non-linearity, system interactions, adaption, and resilience. Many developed a meso application, rather than solely focusing on macro or micro designs. Agent Based Models (ABMs) were popular, as were general systems models following the practice of the late system theorist, Donella Meadows. Applications were interdisciplinary and diverse, including world system models that linked macroeconomics to climate and sustainability, as contrast with micro and meso models trying to explain the complexity of agent-based behaviour on specific organisations or higher-level processes

Convergence Trends in Euro Economies:Financial Crisis Recovery and the COVID-19 Pandemic

The configurative comparative method, Dynamic Pattern Synthesis (DPS) is used to replicate previous research into the impact of the euro on economic convergence. The DPS method ensures a forensic examination of the diverse variable patterns that influence cluster memberships. As with previous research conclusions, there are multiple patterns of convergence and divergence. Consistent clusters across the time periods compared are Germany, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, and Ireland; Slovakia and Estonia; Italy, Spain, and Slovenia; and Portugal and Greece. The variable patterns most likely to influence cluster definitions are differences in GDP per capita, productivity, and investment, although there are other differing variable patterns that influence specific smaller cluster memberships and the consistency of memberships over time. Externalities undermine nominal convergence. An example is the divergence of the experience of consumer inflation between 2016 and 2022. Nevertheless, some convergence in long-term interest rates is achieved. There is also divergence in the real convergence target of GDP per capita. As regards structural changes, productivity differences widen, and investment as a percentage of GDP converges during COVID-19. The theoretical implications are that the complex dynamics between collaboration, competitive markets, and global instabilities makes convergence unlikely. Real convergence, such as reducing the distribution differences of GDP per capita, is only likely to be possible over many decades, and needs considerable government interventions. Complex systems theory informs us that limits to convergence are inevitable in dynamic systems where events bring unplanned divergences